Neckarsulmer SU 0–2 Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

Neckarsulmer SU

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

5/28/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 37Sportpark Pichterich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Neckarsulmer SU45%

×Draw23%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neckarsulmer SUExpected goals in this matchSportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.52

Neckarsulmer SU

1.83

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

1.52

Neckarsulmer SU creates 20% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 25 away

1.47

creates per match

1.44

1.60

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Neckarsulmer SU

1.47

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

1.44

allows per match

Neckarsulmer SU

1.60

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neckarsulmer SU ↓

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Neckarsulmer SU or draw

68%

Neckarsulmer SU or Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

77%

Draw or Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

55%

Winning margin

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+

24%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals

84%

Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals

54%

Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals

28%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1+ goals

78%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2+ goals

45%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)

58%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neckarsulmer SU at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.47 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 1.44 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Neckarsulmer SU scores more

45%

level

23%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen scores more

32%

Neckarsulmer SU at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Neckarsulmer SU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff