Neckarsulmer SU 2–4 SGV Freiberg: Result & Stats

Neckarsulmer SU

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

SGV Freiberg

4/18/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 30Sportpark Pichterich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Neckarsulmer SU17%

×Draw19%

SGV Freiberg65%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neckarsulmer SUExpected goals in this matchSGV Freiberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

2.34

Neckarsulmer SU

1.10

SGV Freiberg

2.34

SGV Freiberg creates 113% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 26 away

1.47

creates per match

3.08

1.60

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Neckarsulmer SU

1.47

SGV Freiberg

3.08

allows per match

Neckarsulmer SU

1.60

SGV Freiberg

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

SGV Freiberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neckarsulmer SU ↓

SGV Freiberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Neckarsulmer SU or draw

35%

Neckarsulmer SU or SGV Freiberg

81%

Draw or SGV Freiberg

83%

Winning margin

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+

6%

SGV Freiberg wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals

67%

Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals

30%

Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals

10%

SGV Freiberg 1+ goals

90%

SGV Freiberg 2+ goals

67%

SGV Freiberg 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)

20%

SGV Freiberg (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neckarsulmer SU at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

SGV Freiberg away — creates 3.08, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.47 + SGV Freiberg defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.10

SGV Freiberg attack 3.08 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Neckarsulmer SU scores more

17%

level

19%

SGV Freiberg scores more

65%

SGV Freiberg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "SGV Freiberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff