Neckarsulmer SU 3–0 Offenburger FV: Result & Stats

Neckarsulmer SU

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Offenburger FV

P. Pander 75'

T. Pohler 50'

K. Lushtaku 17'

9/28/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 5Sportpark Pichterich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Neckarsulmer SU59%

×Draw20%

Offenburger FV21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neckarsulmer SUExpected goals in this matchOffenburger FV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.27

Neckarsulmer SU

2.25

Offenburger FV

1.27

Neckarsulmer SU creates 77% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 34 away

1.47

creates per match

0.94

1.60

allows per match

3.03

creates per match

Neckarsulmer SU

1.47

Offenburger FV

0.94

allows per match

Neckarsulmer SU

1.60

Offenburger FV

3.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Offenburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neckarsulmer SU ↓

Offenburger FV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Neckarsulmer SU or draw

79%

Neckarsulmer SU or Offenburger FV

80%

Draw or Offenburger FV

41%

Winning margin

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+

37%

Offenburger FV wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals

89%

Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals

65%

Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals

39%

Offenburger FV 1+ goals

72%

Offenburger FV 2+ goals

36%

Offenburger FV 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)

74%

Offenburger FV (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neckarsulmer SU at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Offenburger FV away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.47 + Offenburger FV defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.25

Offenburger FV attack 0.94 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Neckarsulmer SU scores more

59%

level

20%

Offenburger FV scores more

21%

Neckarsulmer SU at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Neckarsulmer SU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

K. Lushtaku

50'

T. Pohler

75'

P. Pander

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff