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Neckarsulmer SU vs Lörrach-Brombach — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
FT
2 – 0
Lörrach-Brombach
Lörrach-Brombach
9/4/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 6Sportpark Pichterich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Neckarsulmer SU59%
×Draw20%
Lörrach-Brombach21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neckarsulmer SU
2.29
Lörrach-Brombach
1.30

Neckarsulmer SU creates 76% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 26 away

creates per match

Neckarsulmer SU
1.47
Lörrach-Brombach
1.00

allows per match

Neckarsulmer SU
1.60
Lörrach-Brombach
3.12

finishing

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par
Lörrach-Brombach+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neckarsulmer SU ↓

Lörrach-Brombach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Neckarsulmer SU or draw
79%
Neckarsulmer SU or Lörrach-Brombach
80%
Draw or Lörrach-Brombach
41%

Winning margin

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
37%
Lörrach-Brombach wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
90%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
66%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
40%
Lörrach-Brombach 1+ goals
73%
Lörrach-Brombach 2+ goals
37%
Lörrach-Brombach 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
74%
Lörrach-Brombach (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neckarsulmer SU at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Lörrach-Brombach away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.47 + Lörrach-Brombach defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.29

Lörrach-Brombach attack 1.00 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Neckarsulmer SU scores more
59%
level
20%
Lörrach-Brombach scores more
21%

Neckarsulmer SU at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Neckarsulmer SU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Neckarsulmer SU 2–0 Lörrach-Brombach

Neckarsulmer SU beat Lörrach-Brombach 2-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Sportpark Pichterich in Neckarsulm.