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Neckarsulmer SU vs Ilshofen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
FT
3 – 1
Ilshofen
Ilshofen
9/12/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 5Sportpark Pichterich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Neckarsulmer SU54%
×Draw21%
Ilshofen25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neckarsulmer SU
2.15
Ilshofen
1.40

Neckarsulmer SU creates 54% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 25 away

creates per match

Neckarsulmer SU
1.47
Ilshofen
1.20

allows per match

Neckarsulmer SU
1.60
Ilshofen
2.84

finishing

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par
Ilshofen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neckarsulmer SU ↓

Ilshofen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Neckarsulmer SU or draw
75%
Neckarsulmer SU or Ilshofen
79%
Draw or Ilshofen
46%

Winning margin

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
33%
Ilshofen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
88%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
63%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
36%
Ilshofen 1+ goals
75%
Ilshofen 2+ goals
41%
Ilshofen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
69%
Ilshofen (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neckarsulmer SU at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Ilshofen away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.47 + Ilshofen defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.15

Ilshofen attack 1.20 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Neckarsulmer SU scores more
54%
level
21%
Ilshofen scores more
25%

Neckarsulmer SU at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Neckarsulmer SU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neckarsulmer SU vs Ilshofen

Neckarsulmer SU beat Ilshofen 3-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Sportpark Pichterich in Neckarsulm.