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Neckarsulmer SU vs Freiburger FC — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
S. Neupert 11'
10/1/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 11Sportpark Pichterich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Neckarsulmer SU47%
×Draw23%
Freiburger FC30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neckarsulmer SU
1.77
Freiburger FC
1.36

Neckarsulmer SU creates 30% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 42 away

creates per match

Neckarsulmer SU
1.47
Freiburger FC
1.12

allows per match

Neckarsulmer SU
1.60
Freiburger FC
2.07

finishing

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par
Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neckarsulmer SU ↓

Freiburger FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Neckarsulmer SU or draw
70%
Neckarsulmer SU or Freiburger FC
77%
Draw or Freiburger FC
53%

Winning margin

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
25%
Freiburger FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
83%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
53%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
26%
Freiburger FC 1+ goals
74%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
39%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
61%
Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neckarsulmer SU at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.47 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.77

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Neckarsulmer SU scores more
47%
level
23%
Freiburger FC scores more
30%

Neckarsulmer SU at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Neckarsulmer SU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
S. Neupert

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Neckarsulmer SU 1–0 Freiburger FC

Neckarsulmer SU beat Freiburger FC 1-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on October 1, 2022.

Goals: S. Neupert (11').

The match was played at Sportpark Pichterich in Neckarsulm.