Neckarsulmer SU 2–3 FC Holzhausen: Result & Stats

Neckarsulmer SU

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

FC Holzhausen

P. Seybold 84'

S. Neupert 45'

P. Schoch 89'

O. Grathwol 69'

J. Michel 26'

4/26/2023

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 29Sportpark Pichterich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Neckarsulmer SU40%

×Draw23%

FC Holzhausen37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neckarsulmer SUExpected goals in this matchFC Holzhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.60

Neckarsulmer SU

1.69

FC Holzhausen

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 34 away

1.47

creates per match

1.59

1.60

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Neckarsulmer SU

1.47

FC Holzhausen

1.59

allows per match

Neckarsulmer SU

1.60

FC Holzhausen

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

FC Holzhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neckarsulmer SU ↓

FC Holzhausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Neckarsulmer SU or draw

63%

Neckarsulmer SU or FC Holzhausen

77%

Draw or FC Holzhausen

60%

Winning margin

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+

21%

FC Holzhausen wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals

82%

Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals

50%

Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals

24%

FC Holzhausen 1+ goals

80%

FC Holzhausen 2+ goals

47%

FC Holzhausen 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)

52%

FC Holzhausen (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neckarsulmer SU at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

FC Holzhausen away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.47 + FC Holzhausen defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69

FC Holzhausen attack 1.59 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Neckarsulmer SU scores more

40%

level

23%

FC Holzhausen scores more

37%

Neckarsulmer SU at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Neckarsulmer SU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

J. Michel

45'

S. Neupert

69'

O. Grathwol

84'

P. Seybold

89'

P. Schoch

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff