Necaxa 0–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

Necaxa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

J. Vigón 81'

4/10/2021

Liga MX · Clausura - 14Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Necaxa43%

×Draw26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.21

Necaxa

1.45

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.21

Necaxa creates 20% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 151 away

1.36

creates per match

1.13

1.30

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Necaxa

1.36

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.13

allows per match

Necaxa

1.30

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

68%

Necaxa or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

74%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

57%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

21%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

77%

Necaxa 2+ goals

42%

Necaxa 3+ goals

18%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

70%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

34%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

57%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Necaxa scores more

43%

level

26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

32%

Necaxa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

K. Mercado

Necaxa · M

7.7

Match Events

13'

J. Dinenno

21'

I. Dominguez

30'

N. Freire

46'

M. De Luna← I. Domínguez

60'

L. López← C. Gutiérrez

60'

F. Álvarez← G. Torres

68'

R. Aguirre← M. Salas

69'

J. Delgado

73'

Ian González← M. Barragán

75'

Ángel García← S. Saucedo

80'

B. Carvallo← K. Mercado

81'

J. Vigón↳ J. Dinenno

90+4'

Amaury García← L. López

90+4'

G. Moreno← J. Vigón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaU.N.A.M.

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots10

1Corners1

17Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots10

5On Target1

7Off Target6

4Blocked3

12Inside Box4

4Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

320Total Passes396

252Accurate Passes313

79%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0