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Necaxa vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
4/1/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 13Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Necaxa47%
×Draw25%
Santos Laguna28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.62
Santos Laguna
1.20

Necaxa creates 35% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 142 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.36
Santos Laguna
1.10

allows per match

Necaxa
1.30
Santos Laguna
1.88

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
72%
Necaxa or Santos Laguna
75%
Draw or Santos Laguna
53%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
24%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
80%
Necaxa 2+ goals
48%
Necaxa 3+ goals
22%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
70%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
34%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
62%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.88 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Santos Laguna defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.62

Santos Laguna attack 1.10 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Necaxa scores more
47%
level
25%
Santos Laguna scores more
28%

Necaxa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
A. PeñaNecaxaNecaxa · D
7.9

Match Events

12'
A. Oliveros
14'
A. Cervantes
34'
J. Esquivel
46'
F. Batista← R. Monreal
55'
J. Correa← S. Muñóz
55'
A. López← A. Cervantes
66'
J. Domínguez← B. Garnica
66'
H. Jurado← D. Batallini
73'
R. Cortéz← F. Madrigal
77'
D. Medina← J. González
83'
O. Manzanarez
85'
L. González← J. Brunetta

Possession

45%Necaxa

Shots

12Necaxa

Pass accuracy

47%Necaxa

Statistics

NecaxaSantos
Overview
45%Possession55%
12Total Shots13
5Corners5
14Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots13
4On Target2
6Off Target6
2Blocked5
9Inside Box9
3Outside Box4
Passing
45%Possession55%
309Total Passes406
208Accurate Passes305
67%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Necaxa vs Santos Laguna

Necaxa and Santos Laguna drew 0-0 in Liga MX on April 1, 2023.

Santos Laguna controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes in Aguascalientes.