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Necaxa vs Mazatlán — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mazatlán
Mazatlán
2/22/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 8Estadio Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Necaxa49%
×Draw25%
Mazatlán26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.61
Mazatlán
1.09

Necaxa creates 48% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 103 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.36
Mazatlán
0.89

allows per match

Necaxa
1.29
Mazatlán
1.86

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Mazatlán+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Mazatlán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
74%
Necaxa or Mazatlán
75%
Draw or Mazatlán
51%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
26%
Mazatlán wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
80%
Necaxa 2+ goals
48%
Necaxa 3+ goals
22%
Mazatlán 1+ goals
66%
Mazatlán 2+ goals
30%
Mazatlán 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
66%
Mazatlán (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 138 matches

Mazatlán away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.86 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Mazatlán defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.61

Mazatlán attack 0.89 + Necaxa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Necaxa scores more
49%
level
25%
Mazatlán scores more
26%

Necaxa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Necaxa 3–1 Mazatlán

Necaxa beat Mazatlán 3-1 in Liga MX on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria in Aguascalientes.