Necaxa 2–2 Mazatlán: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Necaxa

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Mazatlán

F. Batista 59', 45'

R. Meraz 45+2'

M. Sansores 34'

9/24/2022

Liga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Necaxa49%

×Draw25%

Mazatlán26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchMazatlán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.09

Necaxa

1.61

Mazatlán

1.09

Necaxa creates 48% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 103 away

1.36

creates per match

0.89

1.30

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Necaxa

1.36

Mazatlán

0.89

allows per match

Necaxa

1.30

Mazatlán

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par

Mazatlán+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Mazatlán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

74%

Necaxa or Mazatlán

75%

Draw or Mazatlán

51%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

26%

Mazatlán wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

80%

Necaxa 2+ goals

48%

Necaxa 3+ goals

22%

Mazatlán 1+ goals

66%

Mazatlán 2+ goals

30%

Mazatlán 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

66%

Mazatlán (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Mazatlán away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.86 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Mazatlán defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.61

Mazatlán attack 0.89 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Necaxa scores more

49%

level

25%

Mazatlán scores more

26%

Necaxa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

F. Batista

Necaxa · F

8.7

Match Events

-5'

Jorge Padilla

34'

M. Sansores↳ B. Colula

45'

F. Batista↳ M. Giménez

45+2'

R. Meraz↳ Y. Bárcenas

46'

Édgar Méndez← B. Garnica

46'

R. Monreal← M. Giménez

54'

59'

64'

73'

75'

75'

81'

B. Rubio← M. Sansores

82'

A. Araos← D. Villalpando

85'

Bryan ColulaPenalty cancelled

90+10'

Fernando Madrigal

90+9'

Jefferson Intriago

90+2'

F. Illescas← Y. Bárcenas

90+2'

E. Orona← O. Alanís

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaMazatlán

Overview

58%Possession42%

18Total Shots12

5Corners4

12Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots12

6On Target4

8Off Target6

4Blocked2

8Inside Box8

10Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

443Total Passes306

354Accurate Passes227

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

4Offsides0