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Necaxa vs Mazatlán — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mazatlán
Mazatlán
L. Passerini 43' (pen)
8/12/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Necaxa49%
×Draw25%
Mazatlán26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.61
Mazatlán
1.09

Necaxa creates 48% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 103 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.36
Mazatlán
0.89

allows per match

Necaxa
1.30
Mazatlán
1.86

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Mazatlán+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Mazatlán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
74%
Necaxa or Mazatlán
75%
Draw or Mazatlán
51%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
26%
Mazatlán wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
80%
Necaxa 2+ goals
48%
Necaxa 3+ goals
22%
Mazatlán 1+ goals
66%
Mazatlán 2+ goals
30%
Mazatlán 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
66%
Mazatlán (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Mazatlán away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.86 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Mazatlán defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.61

Mazatlán attack 0.89 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Necaxa scores more
49%
level
25%
Mazatlán scores more
26%

Necaxa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
R. ChávezNecaxaNecaxa · D
8.1

Match Events

37'
Israel Jiménez
43'
L. PasseriniPenalty
45'
Julio González
57'
M. Rodríguez← M. Sansores
57'
J. Padilla← I. Jiménez
64'
Ian González← M. Barragán
64'
J. Cobián← J. Rodríguez
76'
R. Meraz← M. Osuna
77'
C. Ramírez← L. Mendoza
79'
Aldo Rocha
82'
Claudio Baeza
90'
Ian González Nieto
90+4'
M. De Luna← J. Delgado
90'
M. Salas← L. Passerini
90'
R. Marín← E. Velarde

Possession

37%Necaxa

Shots

10Necaxa

Pass accuracy

48%Necaxa

Statistics

NecaxaMazatlán
Overview
37%Possession63%
10Total Shots12
4Corners1
15Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots12
4On Target1
5Off Target7
1Blocked4
7Inside Box6
3Outside Box6
Passing
37%Possession63%
274Total Passes465
211Accurate Passes389
77%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Necaxa vs Mazatlán

Necaxa beat Mazatlán 1-0 in Liga MX on August 12, 2020.

Goals: L. Passerini (43' pen).

Mazatlán controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes in Aguascalientes.