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Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
2/21/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 9Estadio Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Necaxa38%
×Draw27%
Guadalajara Chivas35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.29
Guadalajara Chivas
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 146 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.36
Guadalajara Chivas
1.18

allows per match

Necaxa
1.29
Guadalajara Chivas
1.23

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
65%
Necaxa or Guadalajara Chivas
73%
Draw or Guadalajara Chivas
62%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
17%
Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
72%
Necaxa 2+ goals
37%
Necaxa 3+ goals
14%
Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
71%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
35%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
52%
Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 138 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.18 + Necaxa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Necaxa scores more
38%
level
27%
Guadalajara Chivas scores more
35%

Necaxa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas

Necaxa beat Guadalajara Chivas 1-0 in Liga MX on February 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria in Aguascalientes.