Necaxa 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas: Result & Stats

Necaxa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Guadalajara Chivas

M. Ponce 89'

4/30/2022

Liga MX · Clausura - 17Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Necaxa38%

×Draw27%

Guadalajara Chivas35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchGuadalajara Chivas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.24

Necaxa

1.29

Guadalajara Chivas

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 146 away

1.36

creates per match

1.18

1.30

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Necaxa

1.36

Guadalajara Chivas

1.18

allows per match

Necaxa

1.30

Guadalajara Chivas

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

65%

Necaxa or Guadalajara Chivas

73%

Draw or Guadalajara Chivas

62%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

17%

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

72%

Necaxa 2+ goals

37%

Necaxa 3+ goals

14%

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

71%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

35%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

52%

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.18 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Necaxa scores more

38%

level

27%

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

35%

Necaxa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

S. Flores

Guadalajara Chivas · M

8.5

Match Events

4'

P. Perez

34'

F. Madrigal

48'

A. VegaGoal Disallowed - offside

59'

R. Alvarado← Á. Zaldívar

59'

A. Torres← P. Pérez

60'

M. Gimenez

66'

A. Medina← R. Aguirre

75'

F. Batista← M. Giménez

75'

H. Jurado← J. Escoboza

85'

I. Domínguez← B. García

85'

A. López← F. Madrigal

86'

C. Huerta← J. Angulo

87'

A. Organista← S. Flores

87'

M. Ponce← C. Calderón

89'

M. Ponce↳ A. Vega

90+4'

F. Gonzalez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaGuadalajara

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots9

6Corners4

22Fouls4

Shots

10Total Shots9

3On Target3

5Off Target5

2Blocked1

5Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

336Total Passes339

243Accurate Passes251

72%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

22Fouls4

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2

Liga MX: Necaxa 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas

Guadalajara Chivas beat Necaxa 1-0 in Liga MX on April 30, 2022.

Goals: M. Ponce (89').

Necaxa controlled possession (50%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes in Aguascalientes.

Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga MX: Necaxa 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas