Necaxa 1–2 Guadalajara Chivas: Result & Stats

Necaxa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Guadalajara Chivas

Ian González 65'

E. Vega 90+4'

U. Antuna 67'

9/12/2020

Liga MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Necaxa38%

×Draw27%

Guadalajara Chivas35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchGuadalajara Chivas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.24

Necaxa

1.29

Guadalajara Chivas

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 146 away

1.36

creates per match

1.18

1.30

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Necaxa

1.36

Guadalajara Chivas

1.18

allows per match

Necaxa

1.30

Guadalajara Chivas

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

65%

Necaxa or Guadalajara Chivas

73%

Draw or Guadalajara Chivas

62%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

17%

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

72%

Necaxa 2+ goals

37%

Necaxa 3+ goals

14%

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

71%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

35%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

52%

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.18 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Necaxa scores more

38%

level

27%

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

35%

Necaxa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

I. Brizuela

Guadalajara Chivas · M

8.2

Match Events

40'

Juan Delgado

46'

U. Antuna← Jesús Ricardo Angulo Uriarte

59'

Cristian Calderón

61'

Idekel Domínguez

63'

M. Barragán← M. Salas

64'

J. Vázquez← J. Sánchez

65'

M. Ponce← C. Calderón

65'

Ian González

67'

U. Antuna↳ E. Vega

68'

O. Peralta← J. Molina

71'

M. De Luna← I. Domínguez

75'

D. Cabrera← F. Arce

75'

J. Rodríguez← Ian González

81'

F. Beltrán← D. Villalpando

90+4'

E. Vega

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaGuadalajara

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots20

4Corners7

14Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots20

4On Target5

5Off Target11

3Blocked4

7Inside Box13

5Outside Box7

Passing

42%Possession58%

320Total Passes424

256Accurate Passes365

80%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas

Guadalajara Chivas beat Necaxa 2-1 in Liga MX on September 12, 2020.

Goals: Ian González (65'), U. Antuna (67'), E. Vega (90+4').

Guadalajara Chivas controlled possession (58%) and registered 20 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes in Aguascalientes.

Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas