Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Necaxa vs FC Juarez — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
Preview
01:00
FC Juarez
FC Juarez
10/24/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Victoria
Big match
47%
Necaxa
model favours
47%25%27%

Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Necaxa47%
×Draw25%
FC Juarez27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.56
FC Juarez
1.12

Necaxa creates 39% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 119 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.36
FC Juarez
0.94

allows per match

Necaxa
1.30
FC Juarez
1.77

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
FC Juarez+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

FC Juarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
73%
Necaxa or FC Juarez
75%
Draw or FC Juarez
53%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
24%
FC Juarez wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
79%
Necaxa 2+ goals
46%
Necaxa 3+ goals
21%
FC Juarez 1+ goals
67%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
31%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
63%
FC Juarez (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

FC Juarez away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.77 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + FC Juarez defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Juarez attack 0.94 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Necaxa scores more
47%
level
25%
FC Juarez scores more
27%

Necaxa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Necaxa
Direct / counter-attacking
FC Juarez
Balanced
43%Possession47%
76%Pass accuracy80%
13.5Shots13.3
1.08xGBiggest gap1.56
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NecaxaFC Juarez

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Necaxa
5
Draws
1
FC Juarez
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 70%
2–11–12–23–02–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Necaxa
WDWW
Juarez
LDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Necaxa face FC Juarez (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with Necaxa hosting FC Juarez. Match starts October 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Necaxa host FC Juarez at Estadio Victoria.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.