FC Juarez 1–2 Necaxa: Result & Stats | Liga MX

FC Juarez

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Necaxa

2/15/2026

Liga MX · Clausura - 6Estadio Olimpico Benito Juarez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

FC Juarez41%

×Draw25%

Necaxa34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC JuarezExpected goals in this matchNecaxa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.32

FC Juarez

1.48

Necaxa

1.32

FC Juarez creates 12% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 140 away

1.26

creates per match

1.26

1.39

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

FC Juarez

1.26

Necaxa

1.26

allows per match

FC Juarez

1.39

Necaxa

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par

Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

Necaxa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw

66%

FC Juarez or Necaxa

75%

Draw or Necaxa

59%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+

20%

Necaxa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals

77%

FC Juarez 2+ goals

43%

FC Juarez 3+ goals

19%

Necaxa 1+ goals

73%

Necaxa 2+ goals

38%

Necaxa 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)

55%

Necaxa (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.70 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.26 + Necaxa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Necaxa attack 1.26 + FC Juarez defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Juarez scores more

41%

level

25%

Necaxa scores more

34%

FC Juarez at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff