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Necaxa vs FC Juarez — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Juarez
FC Juarez
F. Batista 36'
7/23/2022Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Necaxa47%
×Draw25%
FC Juarez27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.57
FC Juarez
1.13

Necaxa creates 39% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 118 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.36
FC Juarez
0.95

allows per match

Necaxa
1.30
FC Juarez
1.78

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
FC Juarez+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

FC Juarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
73%
Necaxa or FC Juarez
75%
Draw or FC Juarez
53%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
24%
FC Juarez wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
79%
Necaxa 2+ goals
46%
Necaxa 3+ goals
21%
FC Juarez 1+ goals
68%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
31%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
63%
FC Juarez (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

FC Juarez away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.78 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + FC Juarez defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.57

FC Juarez attack 0.95 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Necaxa scores more
47%
level
25%
FC Juarez scores more
27%

Necaxa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
A. PeñaNecaxaNecaxa · D
7.9

Match Events

21'
Edgar Méndez
36'
F. Batista↳ D. Villalpando
43'
Milton Giménez
45+1'
Alberto Acosta
56'
F. Madrigal← A. Araos
59'
José Joaquín Esquivel
66'
J. Godínez← F. Batista
66'
B. Garnica← D. Villalpando
70'
Javier Salas
72'
Edgar Méndez
72'
Edgar Méndez
79'
J. Pablo Segovia← M. Giménez
79'
V. Poggi← J. Esquivel
80'
Alberto Acosta
80'
Alberto Acosta
85'
D. Lezcano← A. Medina
85'
M. Laínez← M. Silvera
89'
C. Ramírez← J. Gómez
89'
M. García← M. Olivera
90+5'
Luis Malagón
90+1'
Vicente Poggi

Possession

36%Necaxa

Shots

7Necaxa

Pass accuracy

48%Necaxa

Statistics

NecaxaFC
Overview
36%Possession64%
7Total Shots18
2Corners8
19Fouls9
Shots
7Total Shots18
3On Target4
2Off Target10
2Blocked4
3Inside Box5
4Outside Box13
Passing
36%Possession64%
269Total Passes462
207Accurate Passes390
77%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
19Fouls9
6Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Necaxa vs FC Juarez

Necaxa beat FC Juarez 1-0 in Liga MX on July 23, 2022.

Goals: F. Batista (36').

FC Juarez controlled possession (64%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes in Aguascalientes.