Necaxa 1–0 FC Juarez: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Necaxa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Juarez

L. García 84'

8/23/2021

Liga MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Necaxa47%

×Draw25%

FC Juarez27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchFC Juarez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.13

Necaxa

1.57

FC Juarez

1.13

Necaxa creates 39% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 118 away

1.36

creates per match

0.95

1.30

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Necaxa

1.36

FC Juarez

0.95

allows per match

Necaxa

1.30

FC Juarez

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par

FC Juarez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

FC Juarez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

73%

Necaxa or FC Juarez

75%

Draw or FC Juarez

53%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

24%

FC Juarez wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

79%

Necaxa 2+ goals

46%

Necaxa 3+ goals

21%

FC Juarez 1+ goals

68%

FC Juarez 2+ goals

31%

FC Juarez 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

63%

FC Juarez (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

FC Juarez away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.78 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + FC Juarez defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.57

FC Juarez attack 0.95 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Necaxa scores more

47%

level

25%

FC Juarez scores more

27%

Necaxa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

M. Olivera

FC Juarez · D

7.7

Match Events

58'

A. Medina← M. Quiroga

59'

L. García← F. Meza

62'

F. Contreras← C. Rosel

75'

M. Salas← A. Sepúlveda

79'

83'

84'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaFC

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots11

2Corners3

13Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots11

4On Target2

3Off Target7

2Blocked2

6Inside Box3

3Outside Box8

Passing

36%Possession64%

320Total Passes596

236Accurate Passes521

74%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0