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Necaxa vs Cruz Azul — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
10/22/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Necaxa36%
×Draw26%
Cruz Azul37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.29
Cruz Azul
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 157 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.36
Cruz Azul
1.32

allows per match

Necaxa
1.29
Cruz Azul
1.22

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Cruz Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
63%
Necaxa or Cruz Azul
74%
Draw or Cruz Azul
64%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
16%
Cruz Azul wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
72%
Necaxa 2+ goals
37%
Necaxa 3+ goals
14%
Cruz Azul 1+ goals
73%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
38%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
49%
Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 138 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Cruz Azul defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cruz Azul attack 1.32 + Necaxa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Necaxa scores more
36%
level
26%
Cruz Azul scores more
37%

Cruz Azul at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Necaxa vs Cruz Azul

Necaxa and Cruz Azul drew 1-1 in Liga MX on October 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria in Aguascalientes.