Necaxa 1–0 Cruz Azul: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Necaxa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cruz Azul

Édgar Méndez 14'

1/22/2023

Liga MX · Clausura - 3Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Necaxa36%

×Draw26%

Cruz Azul37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchCruz Azul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.31

Necaxa

1.29

Cruz Azul

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 156 away

1.36

creates per match

1.32

1.30

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Necaxa

1.36

Cruz Azul

1.32

allows per match

Necaxa

1.30

Cruz Azul

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par

Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Cruz Azul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

63%

Necaxa or Cruz Azul

74%

Draw or Cruz Azul

64%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

16%

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

72%

Necaxa 2+ goals

37%

Necaxa 3+ goals

14%

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

73%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

38%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

49%

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Cruz Azul defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cruz Azul attack 1.32 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Necaxa scores more

36%

level

26%

Cruz Azul scores more

37%

Cruz Azul at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

A. Peña

Necaxa · D

7.7

Match Events

14'

Édgar Méndez↳ J. Pablo Segovia

21'

24'

26'

36'

50'

52'

55'

57'

M. Giménez← D. Batallini

59'

A. Lotti← C. Tabó

60'

I. Morales← J. Martínez

65'

R. Monreal← Édgar Méndez

65'

J. Esquivel← D. Gómez

72'

J. Domínguez← F. Batista

77'

R. Carrera← C. Rotondi

83'

R. Huescas← J. Domínguez

90+8'

H. Gonzalez

90+9'

I. Morales

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaCruz

Overview

31%Possession69%

9Total Shots17

2Corners8

26Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots17

3On Target4

5Off Target8

1Blocked5

6Inside Box9

3Outside Box8

Passing

31%Possession69%

231Total Passes500

137Accurate Passes401

59%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

26Fouls8

6Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1