Necaxa 0–0 Cruz Azul: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Necaxa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cruz Azul

7/21/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Necaxa36%

×Draw27%

Cruz Azul37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchCruz Azul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.28

Necaxa

1.25

Cruz Azul

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.71

creates per match

1.65

0.92

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Necaxa

1.71

Cruz Azul

1.65

allows per match

Necaxa

0.92

Cruz Azul

0.79

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Necaxa+0.29scores more

Cruz Azul+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Cruz Azul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

63%

Necaxa or Cruz Azul

73%

Draw or Cruz Azul

64%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

16%

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

71%

Necaxa 2+ goals

36%

Necaxa 3+ goals

13%

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

72%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

37%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

49%

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.92 · 5 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.79 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.71 + Cruz Azul defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cruz Azul attack 1.65 + Necaxa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Necaxa scores more

36%

level

27%

Cruz Azul scores more

37%

Cruz Azul at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

H. González

Necaxa · G

8.3

Match Events

59'

Adrián Aldrete

63'

K. Mercado← D. Álvarez

64'

O. Pineda← E. Hernández

72'

Julio Cesar Dominguez

75'

L. Pérez← J. Plascencia

75'

J. Rodríguez← A. Aldrete

76'

Ventura Alvarado

80'

R. Contreras← M. Salas

84'

G. Fernández← R. Alvarado

85'

Fernando Meza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaCruz

Overview

34%Possession66%

7Total Shots15

4Corners4

24Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots15

1On Target5

3Off Target5

3Blocked5

4Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

34%Possession66%

172Total Passes347

113Accurate Passes289

66%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

24Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2