Necaxa 4–2 Atletico San Luis: Result & Stats

Necaxa

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Atletico San Luis

R. Aguirre 52', 42'

M. Giménez 45', 20'

G. Berterame 81', 34'

4/16/2022

Liga MX · Clausura - 14Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Necaxa44%

×Draw25%

Atletico San Luis31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchAtletico San Luis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.25

Necaxa

1.55

Atletico San Luis

1.25

Necaxa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 123 away

1.36

creates per match

1.19

1.30

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Necaxa

1.36

Atletico San Luis

1.19

allows per match

Necaxa

1.30

Atletico San Luis

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Atletico San Luis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

69%

Necaxa or Atletico San Luis

75%

Draw or Atletico San Luis

56%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

22%

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

79%

Necaxa 2+ goals

46%

Necaxa 3+ goals

20%

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

71%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

36%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

59%

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Atletico San Luis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.74 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.55

Atletico San Luis attack 1.19 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Necaxa scores more

44%

level

25%

Atletico San Luis scores more

31%

Necaxa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Giménez

Necaxa · F

8.7

Match Events

20'

M. Giménez↳ F. Madrigal

23'

F. Formiliano

34'

G. Berterame

42'

R. Aguirre↳ F. Madrigal

45'

M. Giménez↳ J. Escoboza

46'

R. Sambueza← A. Iniestra

52'

R. Aguirre↳ F. Madrigal

53'

R. Aguirre

66'

J. Diaz

67'

H. Jurado← D. Villalpando

67'

Á. Araos← M. Giménez

67'

Z. Muñoz← F. Waller

73'

F. Meza← R. González

74'

F. Batista← R. Aguirre

77'

H. Jurado

80'

J. Castro← J. Güémez

80'

E. García← R. Chávez

80'

A. Hernández← J. Sanabria

81'

G. Berterame↳ R. Sambueza

83'

A. López← F. Madrigal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaAtletico

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots15

2Corners6

16Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots15

5On Target7

6Off Target5

1Blocked3

7Inside Box7

5Outside Box8

Passing

43%Possession57%

314Total Passes402

243Accurate Passes329

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1