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Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Necaxa
Necaxa
1/25/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 3Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Atletico San Luis41%
×Draw25%
Necaxa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico San Luis
1.53
Necaxa
1.38

Atletico San Luis creates 11% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 140 away

creates per match

Atletico San Luis
1.36
Necaxa
1.26

allows per match

Atletico San Luis
1.50
Necaxa
1.70

finishing

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico San Luis ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Atletico San Luis or draw
66%
Atletico San Luis or Necaxa
75%
Draw or Necaxa
59%

Winning margin

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+
20%
Necaxa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals
78%
Atletico San Luis 2+ goals
45%
Atletico San Luis 3+ goals
20%
Necaxa 1+ goals
75%
Necaxa 2+ goals
40%
Necaxa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)
54%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico San Luis at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.50 · 124 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.70 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico San Luis attack 1.36 + Necaxa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.53

Necaxa attack 1.26 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atletico San Luis scores more
41%
level
25%
Necaxa scores more
34%

Atletico San Luis at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atletico San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa

Necaxa beat Atletico San Luis 3-0 in Liga MX on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez in San Luis Potosí.