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Necaxa vs Atlas — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Atlas
Atlas
J. Quiñones 47', 23'
J. Furch 35'
9/18/2021Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 9Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Necaxa43%
×Draw26%
Atlas31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.46
Atlas
1.19

Necaxa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 146 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.36
Atlas
1.07

allows per match

Necaxa
1.30
Atlas
1.56

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Atlas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Atlas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
69%
Necaxa or Atlas
74%
Draw or Atlas
57%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
21%
Atlas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
77%
Necaxa 2+ goals
43%
Necaxa 3+ goals
18%
Atlas 1+ goals
70%
Atlas 2+ goals
33%
Atlas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
58%
Atlas (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Atlas away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Atlas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Atlas attack 1.07 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Necaxa scores more
43%
level
26%
Atlas scores more
31%

Necaxa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
J. QuiñonesAtlasAtlas · F
9.3

Match Events

22'
Julio González← F. Meza
23'
J. Quiñones↳ J. Furch
35'
J. Furch↳ J. Quiñones
46'
S. Bareiro← A. Sepúlveda
46'
A. Medina← R. González
46'
L. García← J. Escoboza
47'
J. Quiñones
59'
M. Quiroga← Jonathan Gónzalez
67'
J. Herrera← L. Reyes
68'
E. Zaldivar← I. Torres
76'
F. Troyansky← J. Quiñones
81'
G. Maroni← J. Furch
83'
G. MaroniGoal Disallowed - Foul
89'
E. Zaldivar
90+4'
R. Aguirre

Possession

60%Necaxa

Shots

14Necaxa

Pass accuracy

54%Necaxa

Statistics

NecaxaAtlas
Overview
60%Possession40%
14Total Shots9
8Corners8
12Fouls16
Shots
14Total Shots9
5On Target4
7Off Target2
2Blocked3
6Inside Box7
8Outside Box2
Passing
60%Possession40%
401Total Passes265
320Accurate Passes178
80%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls16
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Necaxa vs Atlas

Atlas beat Necaxa 3-0 in Liga MX on September 18, 2021.

Goals: J. Quiñones (23', 47'), J. Furch (35').

Necaxa controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes in Aguascalientes.