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Atlas vs Necaxa — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Atlas
Atlas
FT
5 – 3
Necaxa
Necaxa
12/30/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atlas27%
×Draw20%
Necaxa53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlas
1.56
Necaxa
2.23

Necaxa creates 43% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Atlas
1.33
Necaxa
2.80

allows per match

Atlas
1.67
Necaxa
1.80

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Atlas or draw
47%
Atlas or Necaxa
80%
Draw or Necaxa
73%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+
12%
Necaxa wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals
79%
Atlas 2+ goals
46%
Atlas 3+ goals
21%
Necaxa 1+ goals
89%
Necaxa 2+ goals
65%
Necaxa 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)
34%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Necaxa away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.33 + Necaxa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Necaxa attack 2.80 + Atlas defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atlas scores more
27%
level
20%
Necaxa scores more
53%

Necaxa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlas 5 – 3 Necaxa

Atlas beat Necaxa 5-3 in Friendlies Clubs on December 30, 2025.