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NEC vs Police — Premier League 2019

NEC
NEC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Police
Police
10/18/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3MTN Omondi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

NEC48%
×Draw27%
Police25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEC
1.42
Police
0.94

NEC creates 51% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 71 away

creates per match

NEC
1.36
Police
1.11

allows per match

NEC
0.77
Police
1.48

finishing

NEC+0.00on par
Police+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC ↓

Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

NEC or draw
75%
NEC or Police
73%
Draw or Police
52%

Winning margin

NEC wins by 2+
24%
Police wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

NEC 1+ goals
76%
NEC 2+ goals
41%
NEC 3+ goals
17%
Police 1+ goals
61%
Police 2+ goals
24%
Police 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

NEC (draw refunded)
66%
Police (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.77 · 44 matches

Police away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.48 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC attack 1.36 + Police defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Police attack 1.11 + NEC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

NEC scores more
48%
level
27%
Police scores more
25%

NEC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "NEC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NEC 2 – 2 Police

NEC and Police drew 2-2 in Premier League on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at MTN Omondi Stadium.