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NEC vs Mbarara City — Premier League 2019

NEC
NEC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mbarara City
Mbarara City
2/9/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17MTN Omondi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

NEC55%
×Draw26%
Mbarara City19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEC
1.48
Mbarara City
0.74

NEC creates 100% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 86 away

creates per match

NEC
1.36
Mbarara City
0.72

allows per match

NEC
0.77
Mbarara City
1.60

finishing

NEC+0.00on par
Mbarara City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC ↓

Mbarara City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

NEC or draw
81%
NEC or Mbarara City
74%
Draw or Mbarara City
45%

Winning margin

NEC wins by 2+
28%
Mbarara City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

NEC 1+ goals
77%
NEC 2+ goals
43%
NEC 3+ goals
19%
Mbarara City 1+ goals
52%
Mbarara City 2+ goals
17%
Mbarara City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

NEC (draw refunded)
75%
Mbarara City (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.77 · 44 matches

Mbarara City away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC attack 1.36 + Mbarara City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mbarara City attack 0.72 + NEC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

NEC scores more
55%
level
26%
Mbarara City scores more
19%

NEC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "NEC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: NEC 2–0 Mbarara City

NEC beat Mbarara City 2-0 in Premier League on February 9, 2024.

The match was played at MTN Omondi Stadium in Kampala.