NEC 2–0 Mbale Heroes: Result & Stats

NEC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mbale Heroes

4/25/2025

Premier League · Round 25MTN Omondi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

NEC71%

×Draw19%

Mbale Heroes10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NECExpected goals in this matchMbale Heroes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.65

NEC

2.08

Mbale Heroes

0.65

NEC creates 220% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 15 away

1.36

creates per match

0.53

0.77

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

NEC

1.36

Mbale Heroes

0.53

allows per match

NEC

0.77

Mbale Heroes

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NEC+0.00on par

Mbale Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC ↓

Mbale Heroes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

NEC or draw

90%

NEC or Mbale Heroes

81%

Draw or Mbale Heroes

29%

Winning margin

NEC wins by 2+

45%

Mbale Heroes wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

NEC 1+ goals

87%

NEC 2+ goals

61%

NEC 3+ goals

34%

Mbale Heroes 1+ goals

48%

Mbale Heroes 2+ goals

14%

Mbale Heroes 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

NEC (draw refunded)

87%

Mbale Heroes (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.77 · 44 matches

Mbale Heroes away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC attack 1.36 + Mbale Heroes defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.08

Mbale Heroes attack 0.53 + NEC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

NEC scores more

71%

level

19%

Mbale Heroes scores more

10%

NEC at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "NEC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff