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NEC vs KCCA — Premier League 2019

NEC
NEC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
KCCA
KCCA
2/13/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16MTN Omondi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

NEC40%
×Draw30%
KCCA31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEC
1.15
KCCA
0.98

NEC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 100 away

creates per match

NEC
1.36
KCCA
1.20

allows per match

NEC
0.77
KCCA
0.93

finishing

NEC+0.00on par
KCCA+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC ↓

KCCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

NEC or draw
69%
NEC or KCCA
70%
Draw or KCCA
60%

Winning margin

NEC wins by 2+
17%
KCCA wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

NEC 1+ goals
68%
NEC 2+ goals
32%
NEC 3+ goals
11%
KCCA 1+ goals
62%
KCCA 2+ goals
26%
KCCA 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

NEC (draw refunded)
56%
KCCA (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.77 · 44 matches

KCCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC attack 1.36 + KCCA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

KCCA attack 1.20 + NEC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

NEC scores more
40%
level
30%
KCCA scores more
31%

NEC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "NEC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NEC vs KCCA

NEC beat KCCA 3-1 in Premier League on February 13, 2026.

The match was played at MTN Omondi Stadium.