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NEC vs Calvary — Premier League 2019

NEC
NEC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Calvary
Calvary
C. Waibi 72'
11/25/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8MTN Omondi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

NEC63%
×Draw25%
Calvary13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEC
1.58
Calvary
0.55

NEC creates 187% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 15 away

creates per match

NEC
1.36
Calvary
0.33

allows per match

NEC
0.77
Calvary
1.80

finishing

NEC+0.00on par
Calvary+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC ↓

Calvary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

NEC or draw
87%
NEC or Calvary
75%
Draw or Calvary
37%

Winning margin

NEC wins by 2+
34%
Calvary wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

NEC 1+ goals
79%
NEC 2+ goals
47%
NEC 3+ goals
21%
Calvary 1+ goals
42%
Calvary 2+ goals
11%
Calvary 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

NEC (draw refunded)
83%
Calvary (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.77 · 44 matches

Calvary away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC attack 1.36 + Calvary defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.58

Calvary attack 0.33 + NEC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

NEC scores more
63%
level
25%
Calvary scores more
13%

NEC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "NEC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'
C. Waibi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NEC vs Calvary

NEC beat Calvary 1-0 in Premier League on November 25, 2025.

Goals: C. Waibi (72').

The match was played at MTN Omondi Stadium.