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NEC U21 vs NAC U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

NEC U21
NEC U21
CANC
17:30
NAC U21
NAC U21
9/30/2020U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Round 5MSC De Eendracht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

NEC U2137%
×Draw22%
NAC U2141%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEC U21
1.78
NAC U21
1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 26 away

creates per match

NEC U21
1.15
NAC U21
1.69

allows per match

NEC U21
2.05
NAC U21
2.42

finishing

NEC U21+0.00on par
NAC U21+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC U21 ↓

NAC U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

NEC U21 or draw
59%
NEC U21 or NAC U21
78%
Draw or NAC U21
63%

Winning margin

NEC U21 wins by 2+
19%
NAC U21 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

NEC U21 1+ goals
83%
NEC U21 2+ goals
53%
NEC U21 3+ goals
26%
NAC U21 1+ goals
85%
NAC U21 2+ goals
56%
NAC U21 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

NEC U21 (draw refunded)
48%
NAC U21 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC U21 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.05 · 20 matches

NAC U21 away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC U21 attack 1.15 + NAC U21 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.78

NAC U21 attack 1.69 + NEC U21 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

NEC U21 scores more
37%
level
22%
NAC U21 scores more
41%

NAC U21 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "NAC U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: NEC U21 host NAC U21

September 30, 2020: NEC U21 take on NAC U21 in U21 Divisie 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

NEC U21 host NAC U21 at MSC De Eendracht.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.