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NEC Res. vs Estrella — Division di Honor 2019

NEC Res.
NEC Res.
FT
1 – 2
Estrella
Estrella
12/13/2021Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 8Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

NEC Res.20%
×Draw16%
Estrella64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEC Res.
1.81
Estrella
3.25

Estrella creates 80% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 60 away

creates per match

NEC Res.
1.14
Estrella
2.08

allows per match

NEC Res.
4.43
Estrella
2.48

finishing

NEC Res.+0.00on par
Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC Res. ↓

Estrella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

NEC Res. or draw
36%
NEC Res. or Estrella
84%
Draw or Estrella
80%

Winning margin

NEC Res. wins by 2+
9%
Estrella wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

NEC Res. 1+ goals
84%
NEC Res. 2+ goals
54%
NEC Res. 3+ goals
27%
Estrella 1+ goals
96%
Estrella 2+ goals
83%
Estrella 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

NEC Res. (draw refunded)
23%
Estrella (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC Res. at home — creates 1.14, concedes 4.43 · 14 matches

Estrella away — creates 2.08, concedes 2.48 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC Res. attack 1.14 + Estrella defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.81

Estrella attack 2.08 + NEC Res. defence 4.43 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

NEC Res. scores more
20%
level
16%
Estrella scores more
64%

Estrella at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Estrella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: NEC Res. 1–2 Estrella

Estrella beat NEC Res. 2-1 in Division di Honor on December 13, 2021.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.