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NEC Res. vs Dakota — Division di Honor 2019

NEC Res.
NEC Res.
FT
3 – 8
Dakota
Dakota
9/11/2022Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 1Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

NEC Res.6%
×Draw9%
Dakota84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEC Res.
1.05
Dakota
3.86

Dakota creates 268% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 62 away

creates per match

NEC Res.
1.14
Dakota
3.29

allows per match

NEC Res.
4.43
Dakota
0.97

finishing

NEC Res.+0.00on par
Dakota+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC Res. ↓

Dakota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–38%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

NEC Res. or draw
16%
NEC Res. or Dakota
91%
Draw or Dakota
94%

Winning margin

NEC Res. wins by 2+
2%
Dakota wins by 2+
69%

Team goals

NEC Res. 1+ goals
65%
NEC Res. 2+ goals
28%
NEC Res. 3+ goals
9%
Dakota 1+ goals
98%
Dakota 2+ goals
89%
Dakota 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

NEC Res. (draw refunded)
7%
Dakota (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC Res. at home — creates 1.14, concedes 4.43 · 14 matches

Dakota away — creates 3.29, concedes 0.97 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC Res. attack 1.14 + Dakota defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.05

Dakota attack 3.29 + NEC Res. defence 4.43 → ÷2 → 3.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

NEC Res. scores more
6%
level
9%
Dakota scores more
84%

Dakota at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Dakota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NEC Res. vs Dakota

Dakota beat NEC Res. 8-3 in Division di Honor on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.