NEC Nijmegen 3–0 Waalwijk: Result & Stats

NEC Nijmegen

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Waalwijk

8/26/2023

Eredivisie · Round 3Goffertstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

NEC Nijmegen54%

×Draw22%

Waalwijk24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NEC NijmegenExpected goals in this matchWaalwijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.23

NEC Nijmegen

1.97

Waalwijk

1.23

NEC Nijmegen creates 60% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 98 away

1.82

creates per match

1.04

1.43

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

NEC Nijmegen

1.82

Waalwijk

1.04

allows per match

NEC Nijmegen

1.43

Waalwijk

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NEC Nijmegen+0.00on par

Waalwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC Nijmegen ↓

Waalwijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

NEC Nijmegen or draw

76%

NEC Nijmegen or Waalwijk

78%

Draw or Waalwijk

46%

Winning margin

NEC Nijmegen wins by 2+

32%

Waalwijk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

NEC Nijmegen 1+ goals

86%

NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals

58%

NEC Nijmegen 3+ goals

31%

Waalwijk 1+ goals

71%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

35%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

NEC Nijmegen (draw refunded)

70%

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC Nijmegen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.43 · 88 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC Nijmegen attack 1.82 + Waalwijk defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.97

Waalwijk attack 1.04 + NEC Nijmegen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

NEC Nijmegen scores more

54%

level

22%

Waalwijk scores more

24%

NEC Nijmegen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "NEC Nijmegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff