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NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — Friendlies Clubs 2026

NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
FT
2 – 0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1/5/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Estadio José Burgos Quintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

NEC Nijmegen33%
×Draw18%
Fortuna Düsseldorf49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEC Nijmegen
2.47
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2.97

Fortuna Düsseldorf creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

NEC Nijmegen
3.50
Fortuna Düsseldorf
5.11

allows per match

NEC Nijmegen
0.83
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.44

finishing

NEC Nijmegen+0.00on par
Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC Nijmegen ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

NEC Nijmegen or draw
51%
NEC Nijmegen or Fortuna Düsseldorf
82%
Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf
67%

Winning margin

NEC Nijmegen wins by 2+
19%
Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

NEC Nijmegen 1+ goals
91%
NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals
70%
NEC Nijmegen 3+ goals
44%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals
95%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals
79%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

NEC Nijmegen (draw refunded)
41%
Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC Nijmegen at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 5.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC Nijmegen attack 3.50 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.47

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 5.11 + NEC Nijmegen defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 2.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

NEC Nijmegen scores more
33%
level
18%
Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more
49%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: NEC Nijmegen 2–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf

NEC Nijmegen beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José Burgos Quintana in Coín.