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Nebitci vs Energetik — Ýokary Liga 2020

Nebitci
Nebitci
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Energetik
Energetik
12/24/2023Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 27Balkanabat Stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Nebitci58%
×Draw23%
Energetik20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nebitci
1.85
Energetik
0.97

Nebitci creates 91% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 55 away

creates per match

Nebitci
1.11
Energetik
0.56

allows per match

Nebitci
1.38
Energetik
2.60

finishing

Nebitci+0.00on par
Energetik+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nebitci ↓

Energetik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nebitci or draw
80%
Nebitci or Energetik
77%
Draw or Energetik
42%

Winning margin

Nebitci wins by 2+
33%
Energetik wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nebitci 1+ goals
84%
Nebitci 2+ goals
55%
Nebitci 3+ goals
28%
Energetik 1+ goals
62%
Energetik 2+ goals
25%
Energetik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nebitci (draw refunded)
75%
Energetik (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nebitci at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.38 · 82 matches

Energetik away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.60 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nebitci attack 1.11 + Energetik defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.85

Energetik attack 0.56 + Nebitci defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nebitci scores more
58%
level
23%
Energetik scores more
20%

Nebitci at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nebitci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nebitci vs Energetik

Nebitci beat Energetik 2-0 in Ýokary Liga on December 24, 2023.

The match was played at Balkanabat Stadiony in Balkanabat.