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Nebitci vs Arkadag — Ýokary Liga 2020

Nebitci
Nebitci
FT
1 – 8
HT: 0 – 4
Arkadag
Arkadag
8/11/2025Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Nebitci10%
×Draw16%
Arkadag74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nebitci
0.85
Arkadag
2.58

Arkadag creates 204% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 47 away

creates per match

Nebitci
1.11
Arkadag
3.79

allows per match

Nebitci
1.38
Arkadag
0.60

finishing

Nebitci+0.00on par
Arkadag+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nebitci ↓

Arkadag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–211%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Nebitci or draw
26%
Nebitci or Arkadag
84%
Draw or Arkadag
90%

Winning margin

Nebitci wins by 2+
3%
Arkadag wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Nebitci 1+ goals
57%
Nebitci 2+ goals
21%
Nebitci 3+ goals
5%
Arkadag 1+ goals
92%
Arkadag 2+ goals
72%
Arkadag 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Nebitci (draw refunded)
12%
Arkadag (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nebitci at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.38 · 82 matches

Arkadag away — creates 3.79, concedes 0.60 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nebitci attack 1.11 + Arkadag defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.85

Arkadag attack 3.79 + Nebitci defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Nebitci scores more
10%
level
16%
Arkadag scores more
74%

Arkadag at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Arkadag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nebitci vs Arkadag

Arkadag beat Nebitci 8-1 in Ýokary Liga on August 11, 2025.