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Nea Salamis vs Ethnikos Achna — 1. Division 2019

Nea Salamis
Nea Salamis
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Ethnikos Achna
Ethnikos Achna
1/4/20251. Division1. Division · Round 16Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Nea Salamis41%
×Draw24%
Ethnikos Achna34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nea Salamis
1.60
Ethnikos Achna
1.44

Nea Salamis creates 11% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 101 away

creates per match

Nea Salamis
1.26
Ethnikos Achna
1.22

allows per match

Nea Salamis
1.65
Ethnikos Achna
1.94

finishing

Nea Salamis+0.00on par
Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nea Salamis ↓

Ethnikos Achna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Nea Salamis or draw
66%
Nea Salamis or Ethnikos Achna
76%
Draw or Ethnikos Achna
59%

Winning margin

Nea Salamis wins by 2+
21%
Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nea Salamis 1+ goals
80%
Nea Salamis 2+ goals
47%
Nea Salamis 3+ goals
22%
Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals
76%
Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals
42%
Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Nea Salamis (draw refunded)
55%
Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nea Salamis at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.65 · 88 matches

Ethnikos Achna away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nea Salamis attack 1.26 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.22 + Nea Salamis defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nea Salamis scores more
41%
level
24%
Ethnikos Achna scores more
34%

Nea Salamis at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nea Salamis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Nea Salamis 0–3 Ethnikos Achna

Ethnikos Achna beat Nea Salamis 3-0 in 1. Division on January 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.