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Nea Salamis vs Enosis — 1. Division 2019

Nea Salamis
Nea Salamis
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Enosis
Enosis
L. Narsingh 36'
11/1/20241. Division1. Division · Round 9Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Nea Salamis46%
×Draw25%
Enosis30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nea Salamis
1.59
Enosis
1.23

Nea Salamis creates 29% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 85 away

creates per match

Nea Salamis
1.26
Enosis
0.80

allows per match

Nea Salamis
1.65
Enosis
1.92

finishing

Nea Salamis+0.00on par
Enosis+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nea Salamis ↓

Enosis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nea Salamis or draw
70%
Nea Salamis or Enosis
75%
Draw or Enosis
54%

Winning margin

Nea Salamis wins by 2+
23%
Enosis wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nea Salamis 1+ goals
80%
Nea Salamis 2+ goals
47%
Nea Salamis 3+ goals
21%
Enosis 1+ goals
71%
Enosis 2+ goals
35%
Enosis 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nea Salamis (draw refunded)
61%
Enosis (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nea Salamis at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.65 · 88 matches

Enosis away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.92 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nea Salamis attack 1.26 + Enosis defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.59

Enosis attack 0.80 + Nea Salamis defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nea Salamis scores more
46%
level
25%
Enosis scores more
30%

Nea Salamis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nea Salamis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
L. NarsinghNea SalamisNea Salamis · M
8.2

Match Events

5'
Konstantinos Sergiou
8'
S. Leuko← K. Sergiou
21'
Sean Ioannou
36'
L. Narsingh
51'
Serge Leuko
65'
Y. Bahassa← Víctor Fernández
65'
E. Andreou← B. Sambou
65'
Edson Silva← Prosper Mendy
73'
Miguelito← A. Vellios
73'
K. Koumbari← D. Bejarano
73'
E. Sam← M. Charalambous
73'
F. Kotsónis← T. Barry
83'
Jérémy Corinus
86'
D. Solomou← N. Gotlieb
90'
Jérémy Corinus
90'
Jérémy Corinus

Possession

53%Nea

Shots

16Nea

Pass accuracy

52%Nea

Statistics

NeaEnosis
Overview
53%Possession47%
16Total Shots6
2.03Expected Goals (xG)0.11
10Corners6
18Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots6
7On Target0
7Off Target5
2Blocked1
9Inside Box4
7Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
358Total Passes301
293Accurate Passes230
82%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
18Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
1Offsides0

1. Division: Nea Salamis 1–0 Enosis

Nea Salamis beat Enosis 1-0 in 1. Division on November 1, 2024.

Goals: L. Narsingh (36').

Nea Salamis controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.