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Nea Salamis vs Apoel Nicosia — Cup 2019

Nea Salamis
Nea Salamis
CANC
17:00
Apoel Nicosia
Apoel Nicosia
1/16/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundStadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nea Salamis39%
×Draw25%
Apoel Nicosia37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nea Salamis
1.50
Apoel Nicosia
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Nea Salamis
2.11
Apoel Nicosia
1.78

allows per match

Nea Salamis
1.11
Apoel Nicosia
0.89

finishing

Nea Salamis+0.00on par
Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nea Salamis ↓

Apoel Nicosia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Nea Salamis or draw
63%
Nea Salamis or Apoel Nicosia
75%
Draw or Apoel Nicosia
61%

Winning margin

Nea Salamis wins by 2+
19%
Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nea Salamis 1+ goals
78%
Nea Salamis 2+ goals
44%
Nea Salamis 3+ goals
19%
Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals
77%
Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals
42%
Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Nea Salamis (draw refunded)
51%
Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nea Salamis at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Apoel Nicosia away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nea Salamis attack 2.11 + Apoel Nicosia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.50

Apoel Nicosia attack 1.78 + Nea Salamis defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nea Salamis scores more
39%
level
25%
Apoel Nicosia scores more
37%

Nea Salamis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nea Salamis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Nea Salamis host Apoel Nicosia

January 16, 2024: Nea Salamis take on Apoel Nicosia in Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Nea Salamis host Apoel Nicosia at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.