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Nea Salamis vs Anorthosis — 1. Division 2019

Nea Salamis
Nea Salamis
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Anorthosis
Anorthosis
1/18/20251. Division1. Division · Round 19Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Nea Salamis32%
×Draw26%
Anorthosis42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nea Salamis
1.21
Anorthosis
1.41

Anorthosis creates 17% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 115 away

creates per match

Nea Salamis
1.26
Anorthosis
1.17

allows per match

Nea Salamis
1.65
Anorthosis
1.16

finishing

Nea Salamis+0.00on par
Anorthosis+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nea Salamis ↓

Anorthosis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nea Salamis or draw
58%
Nea Salamis or Anorthosis
74%
Draw or Anorthosis
68%

Winning margin

Nea Salamis wins by 2+
13%
Anorthosis wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Nea Salamis 1+ goals
70%
Nea Salamis 2+ goals
34%
Nea Salamis 3+ goals
12%
Anorthosis 1+ goals
76%
Anorthosis 2+ goals
41%
Anorthosis 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Nea Salamis (draw refunded)
44%
Anorthosis (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nea Salamis at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.65 · 88 matches

Anorthosis away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.16 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nea Salamis attack 1.26 + Anorthosis defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Anorthosis attack 1.17 + Nea Salamis defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nea Salamis scores more
32%
level
26%
Anorthosis scores more
42%

Anorthosis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Anorthosis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Nea Salamis 0–4 Anorthosis

Anorthosis beat Nea Salamis 4-0 in 1. Division on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.