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Hedensted vs Viby — Denmark Series - Group 4 2017

Hedensted
Hedensted
CANC
11:00
Viby
Viby
6/16/2018Denmark Series - Group 4Denmark Series - Group 4 · Round 27AaB's Anlæg (Aalborg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hedensted56%
×Draw20%
Viby24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hedensted
2.31
Viby
1.46

Hedensted creates 58% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Hedensted
2.33
Viby
1.93

allows per match

Hedensted
1.00
Viby
2.29

finishing

Hedensted+0.00on par
Viby+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hedensted ↓

Viby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hedensted or draw
76%
Hedensted or Viby
80%
Draw or Viby
44%

Winning margin

Hedensted wins by 2+
35%
Viby wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hedensted 1+ goals
90%
Hedensted 2+ goals
67%
Hedensted 3+ goals
40%
Viby 1+ goals
77%
Viby 2+ goals
43%
Viby 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hedensted (draw refunded)
70%
Viby (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hedensted at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Viby away — creates 1.93, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hedensted attack 2.33 + Viby defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.31

Viby attack 1.93 + Hedensted defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hedensted scores more
56%
level
20%
Viby scores more
24%

Hedensted at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hedensted will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hedensted host Viby

June 16, 2018: Hedensted take on Viby in Denmark Series - Group 4. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hedensted host Viby at AaB's Anlæg (Aalborg).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.