Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

NC Magra vs USM Bel Abbes — Ligue 1 2018

NC Magra
NC Magra
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
USM Bel Abbes
USM Bel Abbes
8/30/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade du 8 Mai 1945 (Stif (Sétif))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

NC Magra55%
×Draw27%
USM Bel Abbes18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NC Magra
1.47
USM Bel Abbes
0.71

NC Magra creates 107% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 46 away

creates per match

NC Magra
1.20
USM Bel Abbes
0.61

allows per match

NC Magra
0.82
USM Bel Abbes
1.74

finishing

NC Magra+0.00on par
USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NC Magra ↓

USM Bel Abbes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

NC Magra or draw
82%
NC Magra or USM Bel Abbes
73%
Draw or USM Bel Abbes
45%

Winning margin

NC Magra wins by 2+
28%
USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

NC Magra 1+ goals
77%
NC Magra 2+ goals
43%
NC Magra 3+ goals
18%
USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals
51%
USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals
16%
USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

NC Magra (draw refunded)
75%
USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NC Magra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.82 · 92 matches

USM Bel Abbes away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NC Magra attack 1.20 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.47

USM Bel Abbes attack 0.61 + NC Magra defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

NC Magra scores more
55%
level
27%
USM Bel Abbes scores more
18%

NC Magra at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "NC Magra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NC Magra vs USM Bel Abbes

NC Magra beat USM Bel Abbes 2-1 in Ligue 1 on August 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du 8 Mai 1945 (Stif (Sétif)).