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NC Magra vs USM Alger — Ligue 1 2018

NC Magra
NC Magra
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
USM Alger
USM Alger
9/28/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade Municipal de Magra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

NC Magra43%
×Draw30%
USM Alger26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NC Magra
1.17
USM Alger
0.84

NC Magra creates 39% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 123 away

creates per match

NC Magra
1.20
USM Alger
0.87

allows per match

NC Magra
0.82
USM Alger
1.15

finishing

NC Magra+0.00on par
USM Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NC Magra ↓

USM Alger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

NC Magra or draw
74%
NC Magra or USM Alger
70%
Draw or USM Alger
57%

Winning margin

NC Magra wins by 2+
19%
USM Alger wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

NC Magra 1+ goals
69%
NC Magra 2+ goals
33%
NC Magra 3+ goals
11%
USM Alger 1+ goals
57%
USM Alger 2+ goals
21%
USM Alger 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

NC Magra (draw refunded)
62%
USM Alger (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NC Magra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.82 · 92 matches

USM Alger away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.15 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NC Magra attack 1.20 + USM Alger defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

USM Alger attack 0.87 + NC Magra defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

NC Magra scores more
43%
level
30%
USM Alger scores more
26%

NC Magra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "NC Magra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: NC Magra 0–0 USM Alger

NC Magra and USM Alger drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Magra in Magra.