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NC Magra vs US Souf — Ligue 1 2018

NC Magra
NC Magra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
US Souf
US Souf
12/29/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade Municipal de Magra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

NC Magra72%
×Draw19%
US Souf9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NC Magra
2.04
US Souf
0.57

NC Magra creates 258% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 15 away

creates per match

NC Magra
1.20
US Souf
0.33

allows per match

NC Magra
0.82
US Souf
2.87

finishing

NC Magra+0.00on par
US Souf+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NC Magra ↓

US Souf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

NC Magra or draw
91%
NC Magra or US Souf
81%
Draw or US Souf
28%

Winning margin

NC Magra wins by 2+
46%
US Souf wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

NC Magra 1+ goals
87%
NC Magra 2+ goals
60%
NC Magra 3+ goals
33%
US Souf 1+ goals
43%
US Souf 2+ goals
11%
US Souf 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

NC Magra (draw refunded)
89%
US Souf (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NC Magra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.82 · 92 matches

US Souf away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NC Magra attack 1.20 + US Souf defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.04

US Souf attack 0.33 + NC Magra defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

NC Magra scores more
72%
level
19%
US Souf scores more
9%

NC Magra at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "NC Magra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: NC Magra 1–0 US Souf

NC Magra beat US Souf 1-0 in Ligue 1 on December 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Magra in Magra.