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NC Magra vs RC Arba — Ligue 1 2018

NC Magra
NC Magra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
RC Arba
RC Arba
12/17/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 8Stade Municipal de Magra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

NC Magra50%
×Draw28%
RC Arba22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NC Magra
1.39
RC Arba
0.82

NC Magra creates 70% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 33 away

creates per match

NC Magra
1.20
RC Arba
0.82

allows per match

NC Magra
0.82
RC Arba
1.58

finishing

NC Magra+0.00on par
RC Arba+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NC Magra ↓

RC Arba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

NC Magra or draw
78%
NC Magra or RC Arba
72%
Draw or RC Arba
50%

Winning margin

NC Magra wins by 2+
25%
RC Arba wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

NC Magra 1+ goals
75%
NC Magra 2+ goals
40%
NC Magra 3+ goals
16%
RC Arba 1+ goals
56%
RC Arba 2+ goals
20%
RC Arba 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

NC Magra (draw refunded)
69%
RC Arba (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NC Magra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.82 · 92 matches

RC Arba away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NC Magra attack 1.20 + RC Arba defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

RC Arba attack 0.82 + NC Magra defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

NC Magra scores more
50%
level
28%
RC Arba scores more
22%

NC Magra at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "NC Magra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NC Magra vs RC Arba

RC Arba beat NC Magra 2-1 in Ligue 1 on December 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Magra in Magra.