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Nazilli Spor vs Şile Yıldızspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Nazilli Spor
Nazilli Spor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Şile Yıldızspor
Şile Yıldızspor
9/28/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundNazıllı İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nazilli Spor61%
×Draw20%
Şile Yıldızspor19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nazilli Spor
2.27
Şile Yıldızspor
1.21

Nazilli Spor creates 88% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nazilli Spor
1.88
Şile Yıldızspor
0.67

allows per match

Nazilli Spor
1.75
Şile Yıldızspor
2.67

finishing

Nazilli Spor+0.00on par
Şile Yıldızspor+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nazilli Spor ↓

Şile Yıldızspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Nazilli Spor or draw
81%
Nazilli Spor or Şile Yıldızspor
80%
Draw or Şile Yıldızspor
39%

Winning margin

Nazilli Spor wins by 2+
39%
Şile Yıldızspor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nazilli Spor 1+ goals
90%
Nazilli Spor 2+ goals
66%
Nazilli Spor 3+ goals
39%
Şile Yıldızspor 1+ goals
70%
Şile Yıldızspor 2+ goals
34%
Şile Yıldızspor 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nazilli Spor (draw refunded)
76%
Şile Yıldızspor (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nazilli Spor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Şile Yıldızspor away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nazilli Spor attack 1.88 + Şile Yıldızspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.27

Şile Yıldızspor attack 0.67 + Nazilli Spor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Nazilli Spor scores more
61%
level
20%
Şile Yıldızspor scores more
19%

Nazilli Spor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nazilli Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nazilli Spor vs Şile Yıldızspor

Nazilli Spor beat Şile Yıldızspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Nazıllı İlçe Stadyumu in Nazilli.