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Nazilli Spor vs Osmanlispor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Nazilli Spor
Nazilli Spor
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Osmanlispor
Osmanlispor
10/31/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundNazıllı İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nazilli Spor40%
×Draw22%
Osmanlispor38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nazilli Spor
1.85
Osmanlispor
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Nazilli Spor
1.88
Osmanlispor
1.83

allows per match

Nazilli Spor
1.75
Osmanlispor
1.83

finishing

Nazilli Spor+0.00on par
Osmanlispor+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nazilli Spor ↓

Osmanlispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Nazilli Spor or draw
62%
Nazilli Spor or Osmanlispor
78%
Draw or Osmanlispor
60%

Winning margin

Nazilli Spor wins by 2+
21%
Osmanlispor wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Nazilli Spor 1+ goals
84%
Nazilli Spor 2+ goals
55%
Nazilli Spor 3+ goals
28%
Osmanlispor 1+ goals
83%
Osmanlispor 2+ goals
53%
Osmanlispor 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Nazilli Spor (draw refunded)
52%
Osmanlispor (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nazilli Spor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Osmanlispor away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nazilli Spor attack 1.88 + Osmanlispor defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Osmanlispor attack 1.83 + Nazilli Spor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nazilli Spor scores more
40%
level
22%
Osmanlispor scores more
38%

Nazilli Spor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nazilli Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nazilli Spor vs Osmanlispor

Nazilli Spor beat Osmanlispor 3-2 in Türkiye Kupası on October 31, 2018.

The match was played at Nazıllı İlçe Stadyumu in Nazilli.