Nazilli Spor 2–1 Arnavutköy Belediyespor

Nazilli Spor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

10/19/2022

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundNazıllı İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nazilli Spor47%

×Draw23%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nazilli SporExpected goals in this matchArnavutköy Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.46

Nazilli Spor

1.85

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

1.46

Nazilli Spor creates 27% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.88

creates per match

1.17

1.75

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Nazilli Spor

1.88

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

1.17

allows per match

Nazilli Spor

1.75

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nazilli Spor+0.00on par

Arnavutköy Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nazilli Spor ↓

Arnavutköy Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Nazilli Spor or draw

69%

Nazilli Spor or Arnavutköy Belediyespor

77%

Draw or Arnavutköy Belediyespor

53%

Winning margin

Nazilli Spor wins by 2+

26%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nazilli Spor 1+ goals

84%

Nazilli Spor 2+ goals

55%

Nazilli Spor 3+ goals

28%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1+ goals

77%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2+ goals

43%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Nazilli Spor (draw refunded)

60%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nazilli Spor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Arnavutköy Belediyespor away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nazilli Spor attack 1.88 + Arnavutköy Belediyespor defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Arnavutköy Belediyespor attack 1.17 + Nazilli Spor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nazilli Spor scores more

47%

level

23%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor scores more

31%

Nazilli Spor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nazilli Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff